Research on high-voltage circuit breaker health management technology based on multi-source data fusion

  • 摘要: 在高压断路器健康管理技术中,现有健康状态评估和剩余寿命预测方法存在数据来源单一、未考虑模型不确 定性等问题。我们通过核主成分分析对多源数据进行降维处理,并利用加权马氏距离构建健康指数模型,显著提升 健康状态评估的准确性,能更早识别设备性能变化趋势。同时,提出基于近似贝叶斯推断的剩余寿命预测方法,结 合蒙特卡洛Dropout和双向长短时记忆网络,实现寿命预测的不确定性量化,预测结果准确可靠。该方法突破传统 单一数据评估局限,为高压断路器的机械操动机构预测性维护提供科学支持,能够提升电力系统运行可靠性,具有 显著工程应用推广价值。

     

    Abstract: In high-voltage circuit breaker health management technology, existing health status assessment and remaining life prediction methods suffer from issues such as single-source data and failure to account for model uncertainties. By applying principal component analysis to reduce multi-source data dimensions and constructing a health index model using weighted Mardorf distance, we significantly enhance the accuracy of health status evaluation, enabling earlier identification of equipment performance changes. Additionally, we propose an approximate Bayesian inference-based remaining life prediction method that integrates Monte Carlo Dropout and bidirectional long-short-term memory networks to quantify prediction uncertainties, yielding accurate and reliable results. This approach overcomes the limitations of traditional single- data assessments, providing scientific support for predictive maintenance of high-voltage circuit breaker mechanical operating mechanisms, thereby improving power system operational reliability and demonstrating significant engineering application potential.

     

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