基于EMD和粒子群算法优化BiLSTM模型的电力系统负荷短期预测

Short-term load forecasting of power system based on BiLSTM model optimized by EMD and PSO

  • 摘要: 电力系统负荷短期预测对电力系统的安全稳定运行具有重要意义,为了解决传统循环神经网络(RNN)算法存在的梯度下降和消失的问题,将长短期记忆(LSTM)思想引入到负荷预测过程中,并利用双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)神经网络从前向和后向共同作用捕捉数据序列的特征,进而更好地处理数据的依赖关系。进一步采用经验模态分解(EMD)和粒子群优化算法(PSO)对模型进行优化,获得了各模态分量的最优模型,对多组分量序列构建相应PSO-BiLSTM预测模型,最后叠加多组预测值,得到整体负荷的预测值。以实际负荷情况为例,验证了所提算法可有效提高预测准确度。

     

    Abstract: The load forecasting of power system is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of power system. In order to solve the problem of gradient descent and disappearance in the traditional RNN algorithm, the Long Short-Term Memory idea is introduced into the load forecasting process, and the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory neural network is used to capture the features of the data series from both forward and backward actions and deal with the data dependency better. Further, EMD and PSO are used to optimize the model, and the optimal model of each IMF (Intrinsic Mode Function) is obtained. The corresponding PSO-BiLSTM prediction model is constructed for IMF sequences, and finally the predicted values of the whole load are obtained by combining multiple sets of predicted values. Taking the actual load as an example, it is proved that the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.

     

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