基于冠豪猪优化和BiLSTM的风光预测

Wind and solar power forecasting based on crested porcupine optimizer and bidirectional long short-term memory

  • 摘要: 针对可再生能源发电功率波动明显、随机性强等特征,传统单点预测技术往往无法有效应对,造成预测结果 可靠性低、收敛效率差、适应能力有限。为改善风电和光伏发电功率的预测准确度与鲁棒性,设计了一种结合冠豪 猪优化方法(CPO)和双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)的发电功率预测方案。该方案采用CPO对BiLSTM的关 键参数进行动态调整,提高模型收敛效率与全局寻优性能;并利用BiLSTM的双向时间特征提取特性,深入捕捉发 电功率数据中的时序关联规律。基于某区域实际风光发电功率及气象参数的测试结果表明,CPO-BiLSTM方案在 均方根误差、平均绝对误差、预测精度与达标率等性能指标上均优于其他对比方法,验证了该方案在风光发电功率 预测领域的实用价值与先进性。

     

    Abstract: Traditional deterministic point forecasting methods struggle to effectively address the strong randomness and high volatility of renewable energy output, resulting in high prediction uncertainty, slow convergence, and insufficient generalization capabilities. To enhance the accuracy and stability of wind and solar output forecasting, this paper proposes a forecasting model based on the crown porcupine optimization algorithm and a bidirectional long short-term memory network. This model employs CPO for adaptive optimization of BiLSTM hyperparameters, accelerating model convergence and enhancing global search capabilities. Simultaneously, it leverages BiLSTM’s bidirectional temporal feature extraction mechanism to fully exploit temporal dependencies within wind and solar output data. Experimental results based on actual wind/solar power and meteorological data from a region demonstrate that the CPO-BiLSTM model outperforms other comparison models in evaluation metrics including RMSE, MAE, accuracy, and pass rate. This validates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model in wind and solar power output forecasting.

     

/

返回文章
返回