新能源发电功率预测准确率计算策略优化研究与应用
Optimization research and application of accuracy calculation strategy for new energy generation power prediction
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摘要: 随着新能源发电在电力系统总发电量的占比不断攀升,为降低风电、光伏等新能源对电网的不确定性影响,提高电网的可靠性、经济性和安全性,对新能源发电进行更加准确可靠的预测显得尤为重要,提出了一种创新性的功率预测方法,以均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)算法为核心,通过将首个预测值纳入计算过程,从而有效提升预测模型对复杂度与难度的适应性。该方法已在某供电公司主配新能源一体化主站调度系统得到成功验证与应用,以更高的新能源预测准确率标准,大幅提升了该地区新能源发电预测、生产和消纳全过程的可靠性和安全性。Abstract: With the continuous integration of new energy into the power system, it is particularly important to make more accurate and reliable predictions of new energy generation in order to reduce the uncertainty of wind power,photovoltaic and other new energy sources on the power grid, improve the reliability, economy, and safety of the power grid. This article introduces a method based on the root mean square error algorithm, which uses higher prediction difficulty assessment standards and involves the first power prediction value in the calculation to optimize the accuracy of power prediction for new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics. This method has been successfully validated and applied in the integrated dispatch system of the main distribution new energy of a power supply company. With higher accuracy standards for new energy prediction, it greatly improves the reliability and safety of the entire process of new energy generation prediction, production, and consumption in this area.
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