基于大数据的电网智能化规划与新能源接入影响分析

Intelligent grid planning and new energy access analysis based on big data

  • 摘要: 首先,基于“数据感知-场景生成-规划优化-运行校核”四阶段闭环方法,融合智能电能表、同步相量测 量装置(PMU)、气象等多源数据,采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)与Transformer模型实现运行状态感知与负荷 预测;然后,通过拉丁超立方抽样与K-means聚类生成新能源典型场景,以低网损、高消纳为目标,基于NSGA- II实现电网拓扑与新能源接入容量协同优化;最后,结合概率潮流、连续潮流及模型预测控制(MPC)储能与柔性 负荷校核,完成规划运行闭环反馈。某区域电网算例显示,年弃电率由11.3%降至1.87%,电压越限概率由12.7% 降至2.14%,有效提升了新能源消纳与系统安全水平。

     

    Abstract: Firstly, based on the four-stage closed-loop framework of “data perception–scenario generation–planning optimization–operation verification”, multi-source data including smart meters, PMUs, and meteorological systems are integrated. The LSTM and Transformer models are adopted to realize operation state perception and short-term load forecasting. Then, typical scenarios of renewable energy generation are produced using Latin hypercube sampling and K-means clustering. Aiming at low network loss and high consumption, collaborative optimization of power grid topology and renewable energy access capacity is realized based on NSGA-II. Finally, combined with probabilistic power flow, continuous power flow, and MPC-based coordination verification of energy storage and flexible loads, the closed-loop feedback between planning and operation is accomplished. A case study of a regional power grid shows that the annual curtailment rate is reduced from 11.3% to 1.87%, and the voltage violation probability is reduced from 12.7% to 2.14%, effectively improving renewable energy accommodation and system security.

     

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