高压架空输电线路局部放电多应力风险评估与智能预警策略

Multi-stress risk assessment and intelligent early warning strategy for partial discharge in high-voltage overhead transmission lines

  • 摘要: 针对输电线路局部放电监测存在异构数据难以统一定标、长期老化与短时环境催化混合计权易导致复杂工况 下风险误判的问题,提出一种基于多源无量纲化与应力分离解耦的综合评价策略。构建涵盖设备状态、环境恶劣度 与物理老化度的评价体系,设计区分绝对电测量与相对电磁特征的双轨制定标方法,实现异构数据的极差无量纲化 处理;融合模糊层次分析法与熵权法计算组合权重,并引入慢变量客观权重下限保护机制;从物理机理层面将年尺 度材料热退化与小时尺度瞬态气象扰动分离建模,构建多应力修正模型。典型组合工况验证表明,相较于单一固定 阈值法与未修正模型,该模型能够识别高湿、高海拔等工况下的潜在风险,能够将相关风险等级由“正常”提升至“注 意”或更高,改善了单一阈值法识别精度不足的问题。所建分级预警机制明确了辅助决策的安全边界,可为输电线 路预测性维护提供量化依据。

     

    Abstract: To address heterogeneous calibration and risk misjudgment caused by mixed weighting of long-term aging and short-term environmental catalysis in partial discharge monitoring of transmission lines, a comprehensive evaluation strategy based on multi-source dimensionless processing and stress separation decoupling is proposed. An evaluation system covering equipment status, environmental severity and physical aging is constructed, and a dual-track calibration method is proposed to distinguish absolute electrical measurements from relative electromagnetic features. FAHP and entropy weight method are combined to calculate integrated weights, with a lower-limit protection mechanism introduced for slow variables. Furthermore, annual-scale thermal degradation and hourly-scale meteorological disturbance are separately modeled to construct a multi-stress correction model. Typical condition verification shows that, compared with fixed-threshold and uncorrected baseline models, the proposed model can identify latent risks under high humidity and high altitude, elevating relevant risk levels from “normal” to “attention” or higher. The hierarchical warning mechanism clarifies the safety boundary of auxiliary decision-making and provides quantitative support for predictive maintenance.

     

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