干式变压器绕组热点温度自动预测技术分析

Technical analysis of automatic hot-spot temperature prediction for dry-type transformers

  • 摘要: 干式变压器绕组热点温度是影响设备绝缘寿命与运行安全的核心指标,现有监测技术存在响应滞后、预测精度不足等问题。提出基于感知计算-应用三层架构的自动预测技术,通过部署多类型传感器采集负载电流、环境温度等多源数据,采用3σ 准则与滑动平均滤波预处理数据,构建融入风速与负载变化率动态修正的预测模型。以2500kV 的AF 级干式变压器为样机,验证该技术可实时精准预测热点温度,解决传统方法滞后性与不确定性问题。

     

    Abstract: Winding hot-spot temperature is a core indicator affecting dry-type transformers'insulation life and operational safety. Existing monitoring technologies have response lag and insufficient prediction accuracy. This paper proposes an automatic prediction technology based on a three-layer architecture. It collects multi-source data via various sensors, preprocesses data with the 3σ criterion and moving average filtering, and builds a model integrated with dynamic correction of wind speed and load change rate. Validated on a 2500kV·AF prototype, the technology realizes real-time accurate prediction, resolving traditional methods'lag and

     

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