基于天气预报和Kmeans的日前太阳辐照度修正方法

A day-ahead solar irradiance correction method based on weather forecast and Kmeans

  • 摘要: 数值天气预报(Numerical Weather Prediction, NWP)被广泛应用于光伏发电功率预测,对于电网经济调度具有重要意义。数值方法存在一定的误差,其中日前太阳辐照度作为光伏发电功率预测最直接的因素,会导致预测精度下降。基于历史天气预报数据,推理天气预报中的误差和Kmeans 对历史相似日聚类,提出一种日前太阳辐照度修正方法,并在此基础上提出一种可分解输入序列趋势与季节分量的COSTLSTM 模型用于太阳辐照度修正模型。通过某公司现场采集和某平台数值气象预报数据进行实验验证,与LinearRegression、KernelRidge、GradientBoosting 等传统方法相比,所提方法具有更高的鲁棒性和准确性。

     

    Abstract: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is widely applied in photovoltaic power generation forecasting, and it holds significant importance for the economic dispatch of power grids. Due to the unavoidable inherent errors in numerical methods, the day-ahead solar irradiance — the most direct factor affecting photovoltaic power generation forecasting — leads to a reduction in prediction accuracy. This study proposes a day-ahead solar irradiance correction method based on inferring forecast errors from historical weather forecast data and clustering historically similar days using K-means. On this basis, a COSTLSTM model capable of decomposing trend and seasonal components of input sequences is further proposed for the solar irradiance correction model. Experimental verification was conducted using on-site collected data from a company and numerical meteorological forecast data from a platform. Compared with traditional methods such as LinearRegression, KernelRidge, and GradientBoosting, the method proposed in this study exhibits higher robustness and accuracy.

     

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