光伏发电预测方法综述

Overview of photovoltaic power generation forecasting methods

  • 摘要: 随着光伏发电在我国迅速发展壮大,大型电网中的光伏发电量占比越来越高。将光伏发电整合到电力系统中,能够有效缓解当前生态环境的恶化,加速发展利用可再生资源,也为我国绿色能源结构转型提供了强有力的推动力。但光伏发电系统很容易受到光照强度、天气类型、大气温湿度等外部环境的影响,导致发电输出功率出现不稳定性、间歇性等问题,给电网带来一定程度的影响,因此光伏发电系统功率预测成为目前电力部门和相关领域的主要研究方向。介绍了光伏发电系统及其输出影响因素,通过查阅相关文献对国内目前光伏发电系统输出功率预测方法进行分析,并提出目前研究中存在的一些问题和解决措施。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid development of photovoltaic power generation in China, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in large-scale power grids is increasing. The integration of photovoltaic power generation into the power system can effectively alleviate the deterioration of the current ecological environment, accelerate the development and utilization of renewable resources, and also provide a strong driving force for the transformation of China's green energy structure. However, the photovoltaic power generation system is easily affected by the external environment such as light intensity, weather type, atmospheric temperature and humidity, resulting in instability and intermittenity of power generation output, which has a certain degree of impact on the power grid, so the power prediction of photovoltaic power generation system has become the main research direction of the power sector and related fields. This paper introduces the photovoltaic power generation system and the influence factors of photovoltaic power generation system output, analyzes the current domestic photovoltaic power generation system output power prediction methods by referring to relevant literature, and puts forward some existing problems and solutions in the current research.

     

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